Metals rose nearly across the board, with LME tin up 2.41%, coking coal up over 3%, and SHFE tin and alumina leading the gains [overnight market].

SMM June 4 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals rose across the board, with SHFE tin up 1.54%, SHFE copper up 0.5%, SHFE nickel up 0.25%, SHFE lead up 0.36%, SHFE aluminum up 0.25%, and SHFE zinc up 0.52%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.27%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore up 1.58%, stainless steel up 0.2%, rebar up 0.61%, and HRC up 1.15%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 3.07%, and coke rose 2.05%.

Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose, with LME copper up 0.23%, LME aluminum up 0.18%, LME lead up 0.25%, LME zinc up 0.5%, LME tin up 2.41%, and LME nickel down 0.4%.

Overnight, in the precious metals market: COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.46%, and SHFE silver rose 0.2%.

As of 8:22 on June 4, overnight closing prices

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Macro Front

Domestic:

[Five departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, organize the 2025 NEV Rural Promotion Campaign] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration are organizing the 2025 NEV Rural Promotion Campaign. A number of special events will be held in typical county-level cities with low NEV promotion rates and significant market potential. These events will serve as hubs to radiate to surrounding towns, with a number of characteristic events organized based on regional characteristics. Synergies will be formed with pilot programs such as the charging and battery swapping infrastructure improvement in counties and the "vehicle-road-cloud integration" pilot for intelligent connected vehicles, promoting the allocation of high-quality resources to rural areas. Market entities in various fields, including NEV production, sales, finance, charging and battery swapping, and after-sales services, are encouraged to participate together. By combining policy tools such as trade-in policies and the improvement of charging and battery swapping infrastructure in counties, an integrated sales promotion plan of "car purchase discounts + energy use support + service guarantees" will be customized, and a comprehensive after-sales service network covering the entire lifecycle of car purchase, use, and maintenance will be established.

[Two departments: Support green electricity application and encourage key energy-consuming entities to use green electricity] The NDRC and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on deepening the improvement of the "getting electricity" service level and comprehensively creating a modernized business environment for electricity consumption. Among them, it was mentioned that support should be given to the application of green electricity and facilitate the connection of green electricity to the grid. Provincial energy (electricity) authorities will take the lead in organizing the disclosure of information on the assessment of the carrying capacity of distributed PV access to the grid and organize power supply enterprises to formulate targeted improvement measures to promote the coordinated development of distribution networks and distributed new energy sources. Promote green electricity consumption. Power supply enterprises should establish and improve a long-term service mechanism for publicity and promotion, encourage and guide key energy-consuming entities to use green electricity, and stimulate the potential for green electricity consumption across society. Support green travel. Local energy (electricity) authorities should organize power supply enterprises to optimize and improve the electricity connection application service mechanism for EV charging (battery swapping) facilities, further simplify the application documents for residential users, and continuously enhance the efficiency of electricity connection services. Power supply enterprises should provide electricity connection services for e-bike charging facilities in accordance with the "three zeros" policy requirements, fully implement the task of comprehensive safety hazard rectification for e-bikes, and effectively safeguard the public's demand for green travel.

[119 million domestic trips made during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, up 5.7% YoY] According to calculations by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, over the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, 119 million domestic trips were made nationwide, up 5.7% YoY; the total domestic tourism expenditure reached 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY.

US dollar:

The overnight US dollar index rose 0.59% to close at 99.27. The market is also closely monitoring the US non-farm payrolls data and speeches by several US Fed officials on Friday for clues on interest rate policy. US data released on Tuesday showed that job openings increased in April, but layoffs also rose, indicating that the US labour market is cooling amid growing tariff concerns. The US employment report for May, to be released on Friday, may further reinforce this weakening confidence. Surveys of economists suggest that after an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 130,000 in May. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%, but the risk of it rising to 4.3% is not insignificant. US Fed officials once again advocated for caution in monetary policy on Tuesday, as trade disputes continue to inject significant uncertainty and the risk of economic weakness into the economic outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation caused by US import tariffs may soon become apparent, but he noted that it would take longer to see the tariffs lead to a slowdown in the US economy.

Other currencies:

The OECD has revised down its 2025 GDP forecast for Japan to 0.7% (from 1.1% previously), while raising its 2026 forecast to 0.4% (from 0.2% previously); it is expected that the Bank of Japan will further raise interest rates. (Financial Link)

The consumer price inflation rate in the eurozone fell to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. This is the first time since September 2024 that the inflation rate has fallen below the ECB's 2.0% target, further strengthening market expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the ECB this week, which could be the last rate cut in the current easing cycle. The main reason for the slowdown in inflation was a significant drop in service inflation, which fell from 4.0% in April to 3.2%, the lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued to decline, falling 3.6% YoY, while non-energy industrial product inflation remained at 0.6%. Prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising to 3.3% YoY from 3.0% the previous month. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2022. (Huitong Finance)

Data Aspects:

Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate, Australia's Q1 GDP year-on-year rate, Russia's May SPGI Services PMI, the final UK May SPGI Services PMI, the US May ADP employment change, Canada's May total reserve assets, Brazil's May seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. Additionally, notable events include: 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session; 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, attending the "Fed Listens" event; and the Bank of Canada announcing its interest rate decision.

Crude Oil Aspects:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.31% and Brent up 1.52%. Ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between the US and Iran, have sparked supply concerns, supporting oil prices.

Russia is a member of the OPEC group (including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies). According to US energy data, Russia was the world's second-largest crude oil producer in 2024, second only to the US. Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In Canada, it is estimated that wildfires in Alberta have affected over 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil output.

Preliminary survey results released on Monday indicated that US crude oil inventories likely fell last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories may have risen. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 30. (Webstock Inc.)